bomlat's blog

Chinese inflation rate vs. rare earth minerals

2010-10-19T08:30:00.000-07:00
From the Bloomberg:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=a0oK9Fpz4YC0
China raised its benchmark lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2007 after inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 22 months. The one-year deposit rate will increase to 2.5 percent from 2.25 percent, effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. The lending rate will increase to 5.56 percent from 5.31 percent, it said.
China’s inflation quickened to 3.5 percent in August, highlighting overheating risks that have prompted the government to curb credit and clamp down on the real-estate market this year. Higher interest rates may encourage inflows of speculative capital from abroad, complicating management of the fastest-growing major economy.
News about the Chinese rare earth mineral blockade:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/19/business/global/19mineral.html?_r=1&ref=business
China mines 95 percent of the world’s rare earths. They are crucial for compact fluorescent light bulbs, hybrid gasoline-electric cars, large wind turbines and other clean energy technologies, as well as for mobile phones and a number of military applications, like missiles, sonar and range finders on tanks.
…
Wang Caifeng, the secretary general of the Chinese Rare Earths Industry Association, predicted at the conference in Xiamen on Tuesday that domestic demand for rare earths in China would soar to 130,000 tons in 2015 from 75,000 tons now, Bloomberg reported. She said that world consumption would be 210,000 tons in 2015, which would seem to indicate that consumption outside China would total 80,000 tons.
By comparison, the export quotas for this year total just 30,258 tons, down from 65,609 tons in 2005.
If China mines the 95% of all of the rare minerals, then the world using only the 22% of all of the production !
The remaining 78% processed in China.
It mean the current blockade is simply a panic move, to be able to capture the last tiniest part of the market, before they exhausting all growing potential.
So, summarise (I hope that the numbers are good):
1.,The interest rate lower than the inflation
2.,It driving more and more investment into the Chinese economy
3.,Due to this now they have many industry which can make the requirement of the whole world.
The question after all of this: where is the growth opportunity? They will exporting to the Mars, after all production capacity will be killed outside China?
Interesting trends in the US treasury rates

2010-10-15T01:42:00.000-07:00
The rates are pointing a toward a “collision” within two month on the two years rates, and they will collide on the longer term rates too.
It mean that someone have to liquidate assets, and there have to be more seller than buyer for that asset (because the market limited without the new money from the FED or from the US government)
It could mean a crisis, or a new round of Quantitive Easing – we will soon see what will happen.
Interesting trends in the US treasury rates

2010-10-14T03:59:00.000-07:00
The rates are pointing a toward a “collision” within two month on the two years rates, and they will collide on the longer term rates too.
It mean that someone have to liquidate assets, and there have to be more seller than buyer for that asset (because the market limited without the new money from the FED or from the US government)
It could mean a crisis, or a new round of Quantitive Easing – we will soon see what will happen.
Interesting Chinese PPI (Producer Price Inflation) data-and what could be behind it

2010-09-15T08:30:00.000-07:00
First of all , if we consider the sensitiveness of the Chinese export/investment sector to the availability of cheap loans, then the most important data is the interest rate vs. PPI.
It was negative during the bust- at that time many Chinese manufacturer went out from the business.
Now it is positive, however peaked
Interesting the connection with the US trade deific.
What could it mean?
The Chinese inflation is driven by the interest rate-from one side.
And since 2006 the Government flooded the market with cheap investment loans, just to keep the economy on track.
The PPI went down when the US deficit peaked- and during the 2008 downturn.
I assume that there is a strong connection between the PPI-interest rate spread, the profitability of the enterprises and the Chinese housing market (the mayor part of the money end in the housing market- the investment financed with 100% loans, so there is no place for the earned money)
Intereting.
Volvo long term heavy duty sales trend - (Volvo+Mack+Renault trucks)

2010-08-27T07:02:00.001-07:00
US consumer credit in freefall

2010-07-09T07:00:00.001-07:00
But the situation is not as bad as it could be – without the US government the dip could be two times more.
In the non-revolving field, the government increased its share on the market from 98.4 (2007) to 217.1 billion $
Without this, the actual dip could be 273.8 billion $ instead of the current 155,1 billion$
And the other interesting point is the drop in the securitized assets ,and the growth in the commercial banks field at the beginning of this year J
Pain for the homeowners in Hungary-and same annoyance for the Polish

2010-07-02T07:00:00.000-07:00
Two interesting graph.
The % is the deviation of the exchange rates from the pre-crisis avarage .
As it seems,the Hungarian homeowners made a realistic decision to take CHF morgages, due to the stability of the CHF exchange rate
The interesting question would be the reason of this stability.
My favourite theory is the inflation chasing of the central bank.Due to that,the Bank of Hungary increased the intrest rate to strenghten the forint if the exchange rate been too high.
#END
Interesting drop in the treasury rates (US)

2010-07-02T04:55:00.001-07:00
Date	1 mo	3 mo	6 mo	1 yr	2 yr	3 yr	5 yr	7 yr	10 yr	20 yr	30 yr
6/10/2010	0.06	0.10	0.18	0.34	0.79	1.27	2.12	2.78	3.33	4.06	4.25
6/11/2010	0.04	0.08	0.16	0.3	0.75	1.21	2.03	2.68	3.24	3.97	4.15
6/14/2010	0.02	0.07	0.15	0.31	0.77	1.23	2.07	2.73	3.28	4.02	4.2
6/15/2010	0.03	0.09	0.16	0.31	0.79	1.26	2.1	2.77	3.32	4.06	4.23
6/16/2010	0.06	0.10	0.17	0.3	0.75	1.22	2.06	2.73	3.27	4	4.18
6/17/2010	0.05	0.09	0.16	0.28	0.72	1.18	2.01	2.67	3.21	3.95	4.13
6/18/2010	0.04	0.11	0.17	0.3	0.74	1.2	2.04	2.7	3.24	3.97	4.15
6/21/2010	0.05	0.12	0.17	0.29	0.74	1.21	2.05	2.72	3.26	3.99	4.17
6/22/2010	0.08	0.13	0.18	0.29	0.71	1.15	1.98	2.64	3.18	3.92	4.1
6/23/2010	0.07	0.13	0.19	0.3	0.66	1.11	1.93	2.58	3.13	3.87	4.05
6/24/2010	0.07	0.13	0.19	0.29	0.67	1.1	1.93	2.59	3.14	3.91	4.09
6/25/2010	0.05	0.13	0.2	0.29	0.65	1.07	1.9	2.57	3.12	3.89	4.07
6/28/2010	0.07	0.17	0.22	0.3	0.62	1.03	1.83	2.49	3.05	3.82	4.01
6/29/2010	0.09	0.15	0.22	0.31	0.61	0.99	1.78	2.43	2.97	3.76	3.94
6/30/2010	0.17	0.18	0.22	0.32	0.61	1	1.79	2.42	2.97	3.74	3.91
7/1/2010	0.16	0.17	0.22	0.32	0.63	1.01	1.8	2.43	2.96	3.71	3.88
Like in the bad old times, in 2008


US oil consumption
2010-06-30T03:40:00.001-07:00
  It is better than in the same period of the last year
  The 2010 consumption is slightly bigger than the 2009 , but 8% less than the peak in 2007
   
   
          1995
         17,219
         18,279
         17,484
         17,142
         17,293
         18,131
         17,147
         18,044
         18,026
         17,651
         17,979
         18,366
         212,761
     
        1996
         18,261
         18,620
         18,301
         17,885
         17,957
         18,107
         18,211
         18,658
         17,655
         19,171
         18,535
         18,334
         219,695
     
        1997
         18,554
         18,398
         17,863
         18559
         18,293
         18,617
         19,107
         18,565
         18,562
         19,071
         18,578
         19,250
         223,417
     
        1998
         18,362
         18,316
         18685
         19,044
         18,375
         19,182
         19,466
         19,347
         18,895
         19,188
         18,673
         19,419
         226,952
     
        1999
         19,029
         19,107
         19,497
         19,152
         18,705
         19,836
         19,820
         20,093
         19,483
         19,868
         19,087
         20,498
         234,175
     
                                               0
     
        2000
         19,026
         19,635
         19,218
         18,816
         19,605
         20,054
         19,696
         20,496
         19,899
         19,798
         19,328
         20,814
         236,385
     
        2001
         20,092
         19,689
         19,876
         19,729
         19,501
         19,561
         19,919
         20,153
         19,016
         19,824
         19,396
         19,003
         235,759
     
        2002
         19,454
         19,444
         19,676
         19,552
         19,728
         19,875
         20,076
         20,221
         19,461
         19,678
         19,991
         19,943
         237,099
     
        2003
         20,017
         20,375
         19,708
         19,830
         19,344
         19,793
         20,094
         20,586
         19,933
         20,182
         19,873
         20,679
         240,414
     
        2004
         20,479
         20,872
         20,453
         20,545
         20,313
         20,780
         20,880
         21,028
         20,529
         20,861
         20,805
         21,229
         248,774
     
                                               0
     
        2005
         20,694
         20,830
         21,009
         20,137
         20,606
         21,198
         20,939
         21,666
         20,142
         20,253
         20,623
         21,495
         249,592
     
        2006
         20,436
         20,577
         20,608
         20,201
         20,457
         20,982
         20,740
         21,434
         20,559
         20,769
         20,669
         20,795
         248,227
     
        2007
         20,567
         21,309
         20,536
         20,536
         20,620
         20,723
         20,747
         21,025
         20,415
         20,476
         20,535
         20,719
         248,208
     
        2008
         20,247
         20,029
         19,831
         19,815
         19,798
         19,678
         19,557
         19,272
         17,839
         19,698
         19,052
         19,142
         233,958
     
        2009
         19,125
         18,706
         18,672
         18,471
         18,176
         18,762
         18,771
         18,732
         18,362
         18,727
         18,550
         19,163
         224,217
     
        2010
         18,528
         18,860
         19,070
         18,910
                                
 
   
  
  


Peak Creadit
2010-06-25T06:28:00.000-07:00
  From TIC 
  The left side is the new, the right is the old data.
   
  How will the line look like in the coming years?
  However, if the line will start to drop, the US have to run a trade surplus.
  If we consider the trade deficit, then the money of the US will run out soon.
   
  
  



China producer inflation-interesting trend
2010-06-25T01:44:00.001-07:00

  The pink line show the actual producer price inflation – it is showing the year-over-year changes.
  The blue line show the changes over the 2008 levels (it is simply the multiplication of the values of the same month from 2009-2010)
  The blue is  the same,but for the 2008-2009-2010 period
  It is showing a short term deflation shock,but a long term inflation.
  Interesting.
   
   
  
   
   
  



historical view on the treasury rates - 1958 -2010
2010-06-24T23:40:00.001-07:00

   
  
  



TIC vs trade ballance
2010-05-25T10:15:00.000-07:00

From top to bottom:
short - long term treasury spread
Treasury rates
Trade deficit of the US,blue % and yellow nominal
TIC+trade deficit yearly sum
TIC-trade deficit cummulative sum.


Top : TIC ballance,yearly,bottom TIC+trade ballance,yearly.

             Definition of the line 29:
      
   Number 3: What is included in the  flows reported in line 29 (monthly change in banks' own net dollar-denominated liabilities)?

A. These flows include changes in banks' own liabilities to foreigners  in the form of deposits from foreign residents into U.S. banking institutions  and borrowings from foreign residents (including funds borrowed under  repurchase agreements), and changes in banks' own claims on foreign residents in  the form of deposits in foreign banks and loans to foreigners (including funds  loaned under resale agreements). Because interbank positions-which can include  both claims on and liabilities to the same foreign entity-are a large part of  the banks' own cross-border positions, these data are reported as the change  in banks' own liabilities to foreign residents net of the change in claims  on foreign residents. This series can be volatile on a monthly frequency.  Note that while these data are referred to as changes in "bank" positions, the data also include the changes in own cross-border claims and  liabilities of other depository institutions such as savings and loans associations and  credit unions, and of bank and financial holding companies and securities  brokers and dealers.
     
   http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/ticpr-faqs-2006nov16.html
 
      
           date
           Sum   net TIC line 30 
          trade   deficit
           trade-TIC   
          cumm   trade-TIC
           Cumm   trade 
          Cumm   TIC
      
        1991
           5341
           -31135
           -25794
           -25794
           -31135
           5341
       
        1992
           94137
           -39212
           54925
           29131
           -70347
           99478
       
        1993
           94722
           -70311
           24411
           53542
           -140658
           194200
       
        1994
           176716
           -98493
           78223
           131765
           -239151
           370916
       
        1995
           171166
           -96384
           74782
           206547
           -335535
           542082
       
        1996
           254175
           -104065
           150110
           356657
           -439600
           796257
       
        1997
           311501
           -108273
           203228
           559885
           -547873
           1107758
       
        1998
           304774
           -166140
           138634
           698519
           -714013
           1412532
       
        1999
           362921
           -265090
           97831
           796350
           -979103
           1775453
       
        2000
           372007
           -379835
           -7828
           788522
           -1358938
           2147460
       
        2001
           431351
           -365126
           66225
           854747
           -1724064
           2578811
       
        2002
           757012
           -423725
           333287
           1188034
           -2147789
           3335823
       
        2003
           717556
           -496915
           220641
           1408675
           -2644704
           4053379
       
        2004
           978860
           -607730
           371130
           1779805
           -3252434
           5032239
       
        2005
           664973
           -711567
           -46594
           1733211
           -3964001
           5697212
       
        2006
           1061837
           -753283
           308554
           2041765
           -4717284
           6759049
       
        2007
           612166
           -700258
           -88092
           1953673
           -5417542
           7371215
       
        2008
           664056
           -695937
           -31881
           1921792
           -6113479
           8035271
       
        2009
           -283613
           -378629
           -662242
           1259550
           -6492108
           7751658
       
 
    
   So,in november 2008 the US banks  get more dollar denominated deposits from the foreigners than the ammount of the  new loans issued to the not-US residents .
     
   Which is interestign,the shape  of the curve.It is a logaritmic curve,and we are on the top of it.
     
   If we check the yearly  cummulative numbers,then we can see a hugh drop in 2009.(jan-jan sum number)
      
   If we assume that the fall in  the net flow of funds will remain on the current (up to the feb of 2010) level,and  the trade deficit of the US remain the same, then the money will run out within  two years for the US to finance the trade deficit .
     
   The possible outcome will be a  swing from a 600 billion deficit to a 300 billion surpluss (roughtly the half of the  Chinese economy)
     
   Logic:the TIC (Cross-Border  Portfolio Financial Flows) have to be ballanced by the trade deficit.
   If we summarise the diference  between them in the past few years (cumm trade-TIC) then we get the cummulatice  diference between the money which was used to buy stuff and the borrowed money.
      
   US summ data explained:
    top:net spread between the short  and the long term treasury rate 
   second:long and short term  treasury rates
   third:trade deficit , yellow  nominal,blue % yoy
   fourth: trade-TIC
   bottom:cummolative trade-TIC
     
   keyworlds:
   TIC monthly reports on  Cross-Border Portfolio Financial Flows
   US goods and services balance of  payments (BOP)

BOTTOM LINE:

With hte current trends,we can go only for two more years.





Chinese truck sales vs. US truck sales
2010-05-25T10:10:00.000-07:00
China sold 630,000 heavy-duty trucks in 2009, up 17 percent over the previous year. And in the first four months, sales grew 132 percent to 383,000 units over last year, which made investment bank China International Capital Corp lift its full-year sales growth prediction from 10 to 15 percent previously, to 31 percent, with 838,000 units to be sold.

Johansson of Volvo also expects 25 to 30 percent market growth in China's heavy-duty truck segment. That compared with 10 percent growth in Europe and 15 percent recovery in the North America.

However, foreign truck makers still only control a small share of the world's biggest heavy-duty truck market, with more than 98 percent of the segment dominated by domestic manufacturers of medium- and low-end trucks, priced below 500,000 yuan ($73,210).

 

Longevity Network

Quote or reproduce the contents of this site, please clearly mark the source"Longevity Network"







For the reference:



the class 8 sales in usa for 2009:   94 789

the class 8 sales in usa for 2008:  133 473

the class 8 sales in usa for 2006 : 284 008
sources:
http://www.thetrucker.com/news/stories/2010/1/14/Class8salespostbestresultof2009inDecember.aspx


http://www.allbusiness.com/company-activities-management/sales-selling-sales-figures/11813410-1.html

In China six times more tuck been sold in 2009 than in the US.
Bubble?Probably a Zepelin.


Creative ZEN Xi-Fi2 acceleratorometer visualisation
2010-05-17T13:10:00.000-07:00
I made a small soft for my wife's mp3 player.
Just drop it into a lua file in the mp3 player application folder (into a new folder,and the file name is main,and you need a png icon from an other folder:-)).
Here is the source:

--acc_met_visual

height = screen.height()

width= screen.width()

black = color.new(0,0,0)

red = color.new(255,0,0)



screen.fillrect(0,0,width,height,black)


text.color(red)



text.size(30)
text.draw(0,80,"fsdf")

accelerometer.open()
os.sleep(10)
accelerometer.set_samplerate(100)
os.sleep(10)
accelerometer.set_datatype("all")
os.sleep(10)
screen.update()
screen.fillrect(0,0,width,height,red)

text.draw(0,height -30,"fsdf")
text.draw(0,height -60,"adas")
text.draw(0,height -90,"mnb")
screen.update()






za=0
ya=0
xa=0
cyc_x=1
  while true do

           if (control.read() == 1)and (control.isSensor() == 1) then
text.draw(0,height-120,"XXXXXX")
         


z_cord=accelerometer.getdata("z")
os.sleep(10)
x_cord=accelerometer.getdata("x")
os.sleep(10)
y_cord=accelerometer.getdata("y")
os.sleep(10)
za=za*0.1+z_cord*0.9
ya=ya*0.1+x_cord*0.9
xa=xa*0.1+y_cord*0.9
screen.fillrect(0,120,width-150,height,black)
text.draw(0,height-30,math.floor(z_cord))
text.draw(0,height-60,math.floor(x_cord))
text.draw(0,height-90,math.floor(y_cord))
col_a = color.new((za+15)*8,(xa+15)*8,(ya+15)*8)
screen.fillrect(cyc_x,0,cyc_x,120,black)
screen.fillrect(230,0,280,120,col_a)
screen.update()
screen.drawpixel(cyc_x,za+30,color.new(220,120,120))
screen.drawpixel(cyc_x,xa+60,color.new(120,220,120))
screen.drawpixel(cyc_x,ya+90,color.new(120,120,220))
screen.drawpixel(width-100+ya*4,height-4*xa-64,col_a)
screen.update()
cyc_x=cyc_x+1
if cyc_x>220 then
screen.fillrect(0,120,width,height,black)
cyc_x=1
end
screen.update()

                                         
              
           end
 if (control.read() == 1) and (control.isButton() == 1)
 then
screen.fillrect(0,0,width,height,black)

text.draw(0,height-90,"sdfsf")
screen.update()
break


 
 end
           os.sleep(10)
      

end
text.draw(0,height-90,"endgame")
screen.update()
accelerometer.close()



Nice US graph
2010-04-15T13:56:00.001-07:00



TIC data - quick analysis about the cross border transactions
2010-03-30T14:28:00.000-07:00
A few interesting point from the new TIC data (the TIC is the US cross-border transactions data)

 

 

This is the cumulative data from 1979,so it contain the net volume of the cross – border transaction (purple line) it is the net data, without any interest calculation, however at the maturity , during the rollover of the loan they have to capitalise or pay back the interest ,so it could have only a marginal effect on the full volume.

The interesting is the net TIC and the net TIC without the banks liabilities.

The TIC been up in the past few month, however it is just due to the change in the Banks liabilities, without it the TIC is flat.

If we check the long term ratio between the full net tic, and the banks liabilities, then we get the next chart (percentage, based on cumulative numbers)

Left is the newest.

It is show that from the peak of the 1995,the bank deposit/loan declined as tool to finance the trade deficit .


Nice statistical improvement in the railway volumes
2009-12-10T12:13:00.000-08:00
Weekly Traffic of Major U.S. Railroads

The line 17, Motor Vehicles & Equipment is up by 8.9% , it is nice,but the 2008 avarage was 16147 , and compared to that the DROP is -12%.

Not so nice.
It is improving compared to the bottom,but it is way lower than the peak.


The best investment:commodity
2009-12-10T12:09:00.000-08:00
nstitutional investment in commodities at record levels: Barclays
New York 10 December 2009 19:24

Just over a year after the biggest financial crash since the Great Depression, financial investors are pouring record amounts of cash into commodities and are likely to increase their investments next year, according to Barclays Capital.

Institutional investors are believed to have put a record $60 billion into commodities in 2009

What will be the price of the oil in 2010?


Interesting data from China
2009-12-10T12:07:00.000-08:00
From the Forbes: 

In the first nine years of this decade China added an average of $1.50 in new credit to the economy to produce each incremental dollar of output. With so much money chasing domestic investments, that ratio has jumped to $7 of fresh credit for each additional dollar of GDP this year, estimates Pivot Capital Management, a Monaco hedge fund.



Like the US on the best day of the house bubble .


Best railway volume of the year (in the US)
2009-12-04T12:09:00.000-08:00
Amazing 

The Motor Vehicles & Equipment is up by 15%!

Of course , it is just smoke and mirror,compared the 47 weeks avarage of 2008,it is down by 32%.


Interesting articla about the Chinese overcapacity
2009-11-29T14:39:00.001-08:00
Have to read for everyone.

Overcapacity in China
Causes, Impacts and Recommendations


US saving rate-October of 2009
2009-11-28T02:38:00.000-08:00
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: OCTOBER 2009

Personal income increased $30.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $45.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October
...
Private wage and salary disbursements increased $2.1 billion in October, in contrast to a decrease of
$6.2 billion in September.  Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $3.3 billion, compared with
a decrease of $6.8 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $3.6 billion, compared with a decrease
of $0.3 billion.  Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $5.4 billion, compared with an
increase of $0.6 billion.  Government wage and salary disbursements increased $0.6 billion, in contrast
to a decrease of $1.7 billion.

...
 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.4 percent in October,
compared with 4.6 percent in September.

So,there is an increase in the "disposable personal income" by $45.7 billion , but the wages are up only by $2.1 billion .

Where is the diference?
The biggest part of the increase comming from the Other personal income.
And this contain the Proprietors income,renting income,dividens and so on.
So,the real income came to the asset owners,and they are tend to be the small percentage of the customers.
The new income will not generate any comsumption.


The best US railway volume up to date
2009-11-28T02:29:00.000-08:00
Weekly Traffic of Major U.S. Railroads
For the Week Ending November 21, 2009

Line 17.Motor Vehicles & Equipment droped only -1.7% compared to the same week of 2008!
And the summary lines are showing simillar small drops.
Of course,the week 46 was week in 2008,the avarage volume on the first 46 week was 16 356 in 2008.

So,in reality it is not a big improvement, but it is all that we have


ATA truck index-October 2009 (US)
2009-11-24T12:10:00.000-08:00
ATA Truck Tonnage Index Dipped 0.2 Percent in October

ARLINGTON, VA — The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.3 percent contraction in September. The latest decline lowered the SA index to 103.6 (2000=100) from the revised 103.8 in September.  The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 109.6 in October, up 1.6 percent from September. 

 

Compared with October 2008, SA tonnage fell 5.2 percent, which was the best year-over-year showing since November 2008.  In September, the index was down 7.3 percent from a year earlier. 



On the top the index was roughtly 115.
So,we can see 12% drop in the transport requirement.
The Volvo sales droped by 50% compared to 2008,so we can expect an increase in the truck sales no later than the midle of 2010(if we consider 14-16% excess capacity on the peak)


The connection between the Chinese car and petrol sales
2009-11-24T12:03:00.000-08:00
China's booming car sales, falling gas usage stump analysts

"Car sales in China are booming [in the third quarter], but gasoline sales seem to be stuck in the slow lane," wrote Standard Chartered analysts headed by Stephen Green in Shanghai . 
...
Assuming most vehicles older than 10 years are scrapped, China 's car stock this year is set to rise about 24% to 32 million vehicles if sales remain on track in the fourth quarter.

That compares with a 10% rise in gasoline consumption for the first half of the year, according to data from China Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals, an energy-industry publication cited by Standard Chartered.

Green says the gap between rising car ownership and fuel demand can be also explained by improving efficiency.

Indications are that consumers are retiring gas guzzlers in favor of more economical models.

Vehicles with engine sizes of less that 1.6 liters accounted for about 70% of all car sales so far this year, up from 62% from 2008, spurred by tax breaks and other government incentives.
 

I don't think that the discrepency could came from mistical carparks or similar things.

But to get correct data,the 24% increase in the quantity of the cars have to came with 12% efficiency increase,it mean that the new cars have to use half as much fuel compared to the old ones.

Or they buy more cars,and drive less.
Of course,this not make eny sense.You buy a car to use it.Or is it just an inflation hedge?Could you buy a car as an investment ?


EU air cargo
2009-11-21T06:07:00.000-08:00
Europe’s Air Freight Falls 14 Percent

Overall freight traffic fell 14 percent in September compared to the same month a year ago, the AEA said, the smallest year-over-year decline since November 2008.

But the traffic also slipped 0.5 percent from August, the second straight month-to-month setback, which suggested the steady improvement in demand had peaked heading into the fall shipping season. 

So,we pass the first peak of the "W" shaped recovery?


US railway volume - Week 43-44-45
2009-11-21T05:40:00.000-08:00
About line 17.Motor Vehicles & Equipment:
                       AVARAGE   volume of the first 45 weeks of 2009 :10 084 cartloads
                       Cumulative volume of the first 45 weeks of 2008 :16 404 cartloads
                                                                          Volume on the week 43 : 13 997  cartloads
                                                                          Volume on the week 44 : 13 717 cartloads
                                                                          Volume on the week 45 : 14 619 cartloads


About the Containers/ Trailers volume:
There was an avarage of 226 940 Units in the first 45 weeks of 2008, and now we had 203 000-208 000 units in tha last three weeks.So,let say it is bellow by 10% compared to the avarage of 2008.


Link to the reports


Interesting data in the Chinese Corporate Goods Price Indices
2009-11-18T08:43:00.000-08:00
 Corporate Goods Price Indices(CGPI)

This is simple:the agricultural price index is on 100%.However it is just a small potion of the inflation,but I think it is the most important part of the inflation for the Communist party.
They could be more happy if the procesed product show improvement.


Volvo truck sales - October of 2009
2009-11-18T04:35:00.000-08:00
Truck deliveries

Quickly: the Volvo+Renault+Mack business sold 7478 heavy duty truck (2244 light and medium duty).It is lower by 50% than the same month of 2008.
The Mack numbers are affected by the new ,2010 emission standards (everyone who have spare money want to buy truck now,because the 2011 models are more expensives)
So,without the Mack the drop is 53%,compared to the October of 2008.

The Eastern Europe market is still in paralyis, the volume roughtly 75% lower than in 2008.


Generaly,the report show improvement compared of the second-third quoter of 2009,but by my rought calculations the market still need 6-9 month to run out the excess stock of truck on the hands of the final customers.


Chinese steel output.
2009-11-17T11:15:00.000-08:00
China steel boom to last five more years 


China’s steel boom will last for another five years and then growth will start to slow, said Zhang Changan, grassroots investigator in China for World Steel Dynamics.

This year China accounted for over 40% of the world’s steel...

40%?
It is shocking.What they are talking about?China want to reach the 50% of the world steel output?

I know an interesting aspect of the investment.If a company market share/demand for the product growing,then they starting to brought more an more machine.
Usualy it is happen in an exponential manner,so they have one machine, they brought a few more,after ten more and so on.
Usualy ,in the last wave they brought the biggest potion of the machines,and at that point they think that the issues with the machines will not make problems for them in the future,becaus in the next wave they will be able to change the problematic parameters of the machines.
And of course it is usualy not true.They will have the problems with the machines for years after the last,final wave.


Japan ship orders
2009-11-17T11:09:00.000-08:00
Of course it is in freefall. 

Japan Ship Orders Sink 37 Percent

Japanese export ship orders sank for the 13th consecutive month in October on a year-on-year basis, tumbling 37.3 percent to 358,300 gross tons, according to figures released by the Japan Ship Exporters' Association on Tuesday.
...
In October, Japanese shipbuilders received orders for five export ships -- three bulk carriers totaling 92,100 gross tons, one general cargo vessel of 105,900 gross tons and one oil tanker of 160,300 gross tons. The five ships total 141,140 compensated gross tons.

Now we compare the yoy drop to the second month of decline.
It will be easy soon to show improvement.


China want to buy two breeder reactor from Russia
2009-11-07T12:56:00.000-08:00
China signs up Russian fast reactors 

A high-level agreement has been signed for Russia to start pre-project and design works for two commercial 800 MWe fast neutron reactors in China, while a deal for more conventional reactors draws closer.

This follows a call twelve months ago by the Russian-Chinese Nuclear Cooperation Commission for construction of a demonstration fast reactor similar to the BN-800 unit being built at Beloyarsk in Russia and due to start up in 2012. Earlier this year, St Petersburg Atomenergopoekt said it was starting design work on a BN-800 reactor for China, with two proposed at coastal sites. The project is expected to lead to bilateral cooperation on fuel cycles for fast reactors.

 

Russia and China are already cooperating on one fast reactor, a small 65 MWt sodium-cooled unit known as the Chinese Experimental Fast Reactor at the China Institute of Atomic Energy near Beijing. OKBM Afrikantov is leading a Russian collaboration to build the unit, which is nearing completion and is expected to achieve first criticality later this year.

 

Commercial-scale fast reactors based on it were envisaged but these may now give way to the Russian BN-800 project, which would be the first time commercial-scale fast neutron reactors have ever been exported. While thermal-spectrum nuclear reactors are the mainstay of atomic energy at the moment, by about 2040 future fuel cycles based on fast-spectrum reactors could extend uranium supplies for many centuries. While several leading nuclear nations have developed prototypes with varying levels of success, only Russia is currently committed to their commercial use. 

A fast neutron reactor able to make fual for themselves and for normal reactors.
With this type of reactors we are able to increase the efficiency of the uranium usage by two magnitude (and of course it increasing the amount of the economicaly available uranium)


US railway volume
2009-11-07T10:10:00.000-08:00
Weekly Traffic of Major U.S. Railroads
For the Week Ending October 31, 2009

 Line 17.Motor Vehicles & Equipment : -13.1% vs. Cumulative -40.0%

Sum volume -12.7 % vs cumulative -17.0 % (Ton mileage)

The improvement is half year away.When we will compare the next year with the volume of the next year the % will show improvement.


Customer credit in free fall
2009-11-07T10:05:00.000-08:00
CONSUMER CREDIT
                                                      September 2009   


Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the third quarter of 2009.  Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of
10 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-3/4 percent.  In September, consumer credit decreased at an annual 
rate of 7-1/4 percent.


The revolving credit was -13.3%,like in August.
And the commercial banks are still doing the elimination of the cutomer credit,the main reason behind the decrease is the weak banking sector.


US truck sales,surge due to the 2010 emission standard
2009-11-04T11:35:00.000-08:00
Heavy Truck Sales Surge in October


FTR Associates says price increases for 2010 models spurs recent sales

Heavy truck sales surged in October, rising 117 percent year-over-year and 104 percent from September, as freight volumes showed signs of improving and carriers began a last-minute round of truck purchasing before new emissions standards raise prices.
...
and exports.

“We are encouraged that fleets have developed enough confidence in the economic recovery that they have been willing to make such commitments,” he said. “However, we believe this is a temporary situation that may actually take orders away from early 2010.”


Chines pethrocemical industry output
2009-11-04T11:13:00.000-08:00
China Petrochemical Industry Output Up in September

» China's petrochemical industry output rose 3.3 percent year-on-year in September to almost 614 billion yuan, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Sunday, citing the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association.
» The increase ended nine consecutive months of decline, the association said.


Protectionism: Seamless Steel Pipe Imports from China
2009-11-04T11:10:00.000-08:00
US to Probe Seamless Steel Pipe Imports from China

» The U.S. International Trade Commission on Oct. 30 approved an anti-dumping and countervailing investigation into Chinese seamless steel pipes. 
» The U.S. Department of Commerce will make a preliminary determination to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties in December and February.
» According to Donghai Securities analyst Wu Peiwen, if the court rules against the Chinese products, producers not only face the likely loss of U.S. market share but also a more competitive Chinese market, which is already suffering from oversupply this year.
javascript:void(0)
Probably China can stop the talk,and could start serious actions to break down the import protecions/export subsides (both is the same )


Chinese Producer Price Inflation
2009-11-02T13:36:00.000-08:00

Now it coming out from the bottom.
Nice to see the buble in work.We will see the result of it.
It is like a big oil tanker as change the course.


Air cargo volume
2009-10-31T00:50:00.000-07:00
Air Cargo Shows Smallest Decline of 2009

International air cargo traffic fell 5.4 percent in September from a year ago but rose 12 percent from its December 2008 low point, the International Air Transport Association reported.

The cargo load factor, or capacity utilization, also has returned to the pre-crisis level of 50.8 percent, which should help to correct the "precipitous" 20 percent decline in yields, the Geneva-based trade body said.



NEW PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS report
2009-10-31T00:46:00.000-07:00
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: SEPTEMBER 2009
                                        2009
                                      May             June            July            Aug.            Sept.
                                                     (Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars        1.3            -1.1             0.1             0.1             0.0
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars                        1.6            -1.1            -0.1             0.1             0.0
Chained (2005) dollars                 1.5            -1.6            -0.1            -0.2            -0.1
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars                        0.1             0.7             0.2             1.4            -0.5
Chained (2005) dollars                 0.0             0.2             0.2             1.0            -0.6



And the other important part:

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- decreased
$48.8 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion in August.  PCE decreased $47.2
billion, in contrast to an increase of $139.8 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $355.6 billion in September, compared with $307.0 billion in
August.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.3 percent in September, compared with
2.8 percent in August.  For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal
saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.





Paccar profit (DAF,Kenworth ,Peterbilt )dropped by 96%,the third quoter was the worst
2009-10-27T14:43:00.000-07:00
Truck manufacturing segment lost money in brutal third quarter 

Heavy truck manufacturer Paccar eked out a $13 million third-quarter profit on $2 billion in combined truck and financial service revenue, but its net was down 96 percent from a year earlier and its truck segment lost money.

Combined sales fell 50 percent, with Paccar’s “truck and other” revenue category down 52 percent to $1.8 billion.




Asia air freight-improvement
2009-10-26T11:45:00.000-07:00
Asia Air Cargo Reaches 2009 High

...
Although freight traffic fell 6.5 percent against the same month last
year, the year-over-year decline was the slimmest the AAPA has reported
since August 2008 and shipping grew 4.7 percent from August to
September.

Traffic reached 4.06 freight metric-ton kilometers flown, the highest
number the AAPA has reported since November 2008 and nearly 28 percent
better than the low point of the downturn in February.


World steel output jumped in September
2009-10-26T11:44:00.000-07:00
World Steel Output Soars

Production in the 66 members of the association, which includes the main metal producers in the world, has been growing since April and was 0.6 percent lower in September than in September 2008 at 107 million tons, it said.

…

Global steel production for the first nine months of this year was 866 million tons -- 16.4 percent lower than for the same period in 2008.


Scania Q3 profit
2009-10-26T11:40:00.000-07:00
Shorter workweeks,but they make money.

UPDATE 2-Scania Q3 profit falls less than forecast

Operating earnings tumbled to 519 million Swedish crowns ($76 million) from a year-ago 2.82 billion, topping the average 246 million seen in a Reuters poll of 16 analysts.
...
"EBIT was better due to the cost savings biting better while at the same time they have raised capacity utilisation during the quarter," Handelsbanken analyst Hampus Engellau said.

"The order intake during the quarter is up for the third quarter in a row, and all in all it is better than expected on the back of Europe and Latin America ."
...
Scania, which like its peers has scrambled to cut costs to cope with the downturn, said order bookings of its trucks fell 6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter compared with a 55 percent drop in the previous quarter.

"Compared to the second quarter of 2009, total truck order bookings increased by 30 percent and surpassed the level of deliveries," the company said.

"The European truck market is characterised by low economic activity, but in Scania's judgement the downturn in western European demand has now levelled off."

In Latin America, demand remained relatively strong while some recovery was seen in Asia , Scania added.

"The comments are pretty similar to what we heard from Volvo on last Friday. Western Europe has stabilized while Eastern Europe is still very weak," Sydbank analyst Morten Imsgard said. "There is nothing exciting with the comments, they are moving towards more stable markets, but on a very low level."

Scania, majority-controlled by Germany's Volkswagen (VOWG.DE
 
) after a $4 billion deal last year, said sales fell to 13.4 billion crowns from a year-ago 20.4 billion to come in just below the 13.6 billion seen by analysts.

Cash flow was positive to the tune of 1.1 billion Swedish crowns in the quarter, up from a 794 million a year ago, as sweeping cost cuts helped the group face the weaker demand.

Like a string of other Swedish engineering firms, Scania in June introduced a four-day working week and related pay cuts for 12,000 employees in its Swedish operations. [ID:nLF961471] (Editing by David Cowell) ($1=6.830 Swedish Crown) 


ATA truck index-september 2009
2009-10-24T13:02:00.000-07:00

ARLINGTON, VA — The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.3 percent in September, after increasing 2.1 percent in both July and August. The latest decline lowered the SA index to 103.9 (2000=100).  The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 107.9 in September, up 2 percent from August. 

 

Compared with September 2008, SA tonnage fell 7.3 percent, which was the best year-over-year showing since November 2008.  In August, the index was down 7.5 percent from a year earlier. 

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Slipped 0.3 Percent in September

It is a good news again.
I hope that it will stay on this level.


US steel export
2009-10-23T08:20:00.000-07:00
Steel Exports Grew in August

Exports of steel from the United States increased in August by 13.1 percent over July, according to a report from the American Institute for International Steel. The month-to-month increase is encouraging news in an industry that has been in a deep and prolonged slump. Exports in August fell 40.6 percent compared with a year ago.

U.S. exporters shipped 800,000 tons of steel in August, 2009. In July, they shipped 707,000 tons. In August, 2008, they shipped 1.3 million tons.



Interesting article about the Chines economy
2009-10-23T07:32:00.000-07:00
This is the most pessimistic wiev about China (but generaly matching Prof Pettis view )

Here is the PDF.

It is arguing about the maturity fo the Chinese economy.


The interesting is the steel/aluminium production volumes.


US railway volume
2009-10-23T07:23:00.000-07:00
Weekly Traffic of Major U.S. Railroads
For the Week Ending October 17, 2009

Interesting poins:
-17.Motor Vehicles & Equipment , -20.6  vs -41.2 cumulative.
-Total:-15.4 % vs -18.1 % cumulative.

Improvement-compared to the bottom.


Volvo truck sales - september
2009-10-23T06:48:00.000-07:00
We have the new Volvo truck sales. (it contain the records of the group,including the Volvo,Mack,Renault ,Nissan and Eicher)

Good news,of course if we compare the results to the first half of 2009.

Generaly , the sales are fall 52% compared to the the same month of 2008,on the group level,on all truck type.

The numbers:


And here are heavy duty (class 9) sales for the brands:



Interesting points:
-the Eastern Europe market collapsed.
-the US market in good shape,of course if we compare it to the very bad 2008 year (of course 2008 is bed,if we compare it to 2006/7,but it was a good year compared to 2009)
-Other Asia performing well,but not due to the Nissan,because the sales fo this brand down by 46% (and  the Other Asia category down by 26%)

Here is the report of the Volvo for the first 9 month.
Financial result,and an indicator about the sales volume:
During the third quarter of 2009, the truck operation’s net sales amounted to SEK 30,351 M, which was a decline of 9% compared with the second quarter and 34% lower than the third quarter of 2008. Adjusted for changes in exchange rates and acquired companies, net sales decreased by 42% compared to the third quarter of 2008.

The truck operations recorded an operating loss of SEK 2,329 M in the third quarter of 2009 compared to an operating loss of SEK 4,778 M in the second quarter and an operating income of SEK 2,653 M in the third quarter of 2008. The operating margin amounted to a negative 7.7% (Negative 14.3%, Positive 5.7%).

Cost cutting with full speed.
And they have favorable exchange rate

Net order intake:

Net order intake rose by 20% during the third quarter of 2009 when compared with the second quarter of 2009. However, orders continue to be on low levels.

Net order intake in Europe was 8,189 trucks during the third quarter, which was a significant increase compared to exceptionally low level in the year-earlier period. For the full year 2009 the European market for heavy-duty trucks is expected to be at least halved compared to the 2008 level of 319,000 trucks, which is unchanged from the previous outlook.

Order intake in North America increased by 56% in comparison to the second quarter of 2009. However, prevailing economic conditions continue to weigh heavily on the market and compared to the third quarter of 2008 net orders decreased by 33%. The North American market for heavy-duty trucks is expected to come down some 30-40% in 2009 from the 2008 level of 185,000 units, which is unchanged from the previous outlook.

Order intake in Asia increased by 28% to 10,079 trucks during the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2009, with improvements in both Japan and India. The Japanese market for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks is expected to decline by about 40% from the level of 74,500 vehicles in 2008, which is unchanged from the previous outlook.



And finaly , construction equipment:

Decline in all major markets except China

Measured in units, the total world market for heavy, compact and road machinery equipment decreased by 42% in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the same period last year. In Europe the total market was down 54% and North America decreased by 50%. China was up 45% while all of Asia declined by 11%. Other markets decreased by 61%.


Chinese buble on full speed.


Japan's trade surpluss
2009-10-23T06:42:00.000-07:00
Japan's Trade Surplus Balloons Six-Fold 



Imports, led by fuel products, fall faster than exports in September

Japan's trade surplus expanded nearly six-fold in September from a year earlier to the highest level in 18 months, according to preliminary figures released by the Finance Ministry on Thursday.

The world's second-biggest economy posted a trade surplus of $5.72 billion in September, up 472 percent from the same month of last year. It was the eighth consecutive month of increases on a year-on-year basis, as imports continued to fall at a faster pace than exports.

Japan's overall exports fell for the 12th successive month in September on a year-on-year basis, tumbling 30.7 percent to about $56.1 billion, while its overall imports dropped for the 11th month in a row, plunging 36.9 percent to about $50.37 billion.

The year-on-year drop in Japan's overall exports in September was led by automobiles, steel and electronic parts, including semiconductors, which fell 42.2 percent, 44.3 percent and 22.0 percent, respectively, in terms of value.

Just quick remnder about the level of China surpluss:

China's trade surplus in September totaled $12.9 billion, down about 56% from a year earlier. 


Japan Ship Orders- freefall
2009-10-20T13:36:00.000-07:00
Japan Ship Orders Sank 75.5 Percent in September

Japanese export ship orders sank for the 12th consecutive month in September on a year-over-year basis, tumbling 75.5 percent to 543,500 gross tons, according to figures released by the Japan Ship Exporters' Association on Tuesday.
...
During the January-September period of this year, Japanese shipbuilders received orders for 86 export ships totaling 4.5 million gross tons, down a whopping 75.2 percent from the same nine-month period of last year.

Like a slow motion car accident.


Daimler truck sales/truck order
2009-10-19T12:16:00.000-07:00
UPDATE 1-Daimler says truck orders better since mid-year

Not so many information,but at least on indicator about the direction of the class 9 market

"Our new orders have been improving slightly since the middle of the year," he was quoted as saying in the prepared text of a speech he is holding at an event in Berlin on Monday.
...
Renschler's comments add to signs that the worst may be over for the world's truck market. In the first half of this year, new orders for Daimler trucks fell by 59 percent.


US freight transportation
2009-10-17T09:57:00.000-07:00
It are the summary numbers for all transportation method in the US.

Freight Transportation Climbed in August


The TSI increased 0.7 percent in August, the fourth consecutive month without a decline after dropping in 9 of the previous 12 months, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported Thursday. The 4.2 percent decline in the first eight months of 2009 was the largest in the last decade, exceeding the 4 percent decline for the first eight months of 2000.

The August increase was mild compared with July’s 1.6 percent jump, but it completes the first four month period without a decline in the index since 2002. June was flat; in May, the index rose 0.5 percent. 

...
The August Freight TSI of 96.2 is a 2.7 percent increase from the recent low of 93.6 reached in April. In April, the index was at its lowest level since June 1997.

The Freight TSI is down 14.8 percent from its historic peak of 112.9 reached in May 2006. 

Again:recovery,compared to the deepest level of the pit.


Container rates-new low,and interesting numbers
2009-10-16T10:21:00.000-07:00
Ocean Charter Rates Hit New Lows

...
"Today's rates are at a new low with around a 15 percent surplus and future (ship) deliveries that could swell the fleet by 30 percent," Clarkson said. “With this in prospect there are real signs of stress, including distressed asset prices."
...
Apart from two charters of 3-4 years, only a dozen deals were concluded or extended for two years, while 180 charters were fixed or prolonged for around 12 months.

Before the container market slumped, charters of one to three years were common across the industry.
...
Daily earnings for a gearless Panamax vessel of 3,500 20-foot equivalent unit capacity have slumped to $5,700 from $6,500 in June and $9,500 in February and are less than a quarter of the 2008 average of $26,125, according to Clarkson.

Ships of 4,250 TEUs that were commanding well over $30,000 a day before the market turned are now getting only around $6,500 for 12 month charters.

Oversapacity,low rates,short contracted periods.
Compared to this mess the truck business is in a good shape.
In this industry the lead time of the new capacity measured in years,the amortisation of the equipment in decades,compared to the months and years in the truck business.


EU air cargo
2009-10-16T10:15:00.000-07:00
Europe Airlines’ Cargo Falls 15.1 Percent


Traffic also slips from July to August in sign of stagnant demand

Cargo traffic for European airlines fell at the slowest rate of the year in August, but the 15.1 percent decline from last year reported by the Association of European Airlines came with the signs that air freight gains for the carriers may have peaked.

The AEA said overall freight on European carriers fell 2.1 percent from July to August, the first time since April air cargo traffic has slipped on a sequential basis.

Freight traffic on Far East routes, the European carriers’ largest trade lane, was down 21.7 percent in August from the same month a year ago and off 3.5 percent compared to July.



Iron ore  and coal shipments on the US Great Lakes
2009-10-16T10:12:00.000-07:00
Seaway Demand Plunged 35 Percent


Iron declines 61 percent, coal 42 percent as steel industry comes to standstill

Demand on the St. Lawrence Seaway-Great Lakes system fell off a whopping 35.3 percent to 19.3 million metric tons of cargo for the season to date through Sept. 30. And improvement, say operators, is not likely very soon.
...
"Iron ore and coal for the steel and power plants (along the Great Lakes Basin) are down for Interlake from about 89 percent capacity utilization late last year to about 38 percent now,” he said.
...
"The key challenge is the iron ore trade for North American mills, down 54 percent from the same period last year," 



Where is the recovery?


Chinese house sales - the reinflated buble edition
2009-10-16T10:09:00.000-07:00
Guangzhou New Home Sales Equals 2007 Boom

New home prices in Guangzhou have recovered from last year's contraction and risen well above the average price in the last property boom year of 2007.

 New home sales in this southern Chinese city hit 7.7 million square meters in the first nine months of 2009, matching the full-year sales level achieved in the last property boom year of 2007, according to official statistics.
...
New home prices in Guangzhou have fully recovered from last year's contraction and have risen well above the average of 8,599 yuan per square meter in 2007, said Li.
...
Average buyers are finding themselves increasingly priced out of the market while investors have become more cautious because of fears of an emerging bubble, Centaline noted.


It will be interesting.
I'm so curious about the outcome of it.


US railway volumes for the week 40
2009-10-16T10:05:00.000-07:00
What can I say? it is weak....But at least it is above the cumulative number,which mean improvement.

Motor Vehicles & Equipment : -19.5%on week 40 vs 41.7% cumulative  , nice improvement .

The sum numbers are slightly better than the cumulative counterparts,but only slightly.

Week 40 US ralway report


US truck market - September
2009-10-16T09:58:00.000-07:00
Class 8 truck sales improve 8.6 percent in September 

Heavy duty trucks sales in September improved 8.6 percent compared to the month before, but 2009 continues to lag the previous year by nearly a third — and 2008 had been the worst year for big trucks in a long time. 
...
According to figures provided to The Trucker by Ward’s Automotive, September Class 8 sales totaled 7,769 trucks in the United States, up from 7,151 trucks in August. Only June (8,006) and March (8,222 trucks) have topped the 8,000 unit mark.

...
The September number is 28.7 percent lower than September a year ago (10,891 trucks). 
And last year was the worst on record.So,we still umder the 2008,which was a crisis year (of course,the srisis year now is 2009)

For the first nine months of 2009, 65,880 Class 8 trucks have been sold in the U.S. (down 32.8 percent from last year), the worst showing on the Ward’s books dating to 1985
But in 1995 the US had 50-70 million less resident.And less trucking demand.


The U.S. market share pie chart through September shows International holding on to its lead, with a 28.6 percent slice on 18,830 trucks sold, edging Freightliner (26.2 percent, 17,264 trucks). Peterbilt’s share is 13.1 percent (8,625 trucks) and Kenworth holds 12 percent (7,934 trucks) of the Class 8 market. Mack has recorded 5,045 sales so far in 2009, and Volvo 4,913.

Compared to the first 9 months last year, International’s market share has improved 532 basis points, while Freightliner has improved its position by 74 basis points. So far in 2009 Volvo has seen its share fall from 9.8 percent to 7.5 percent.

The US makers get market share-probably due to the weak dollar?


Volvo truck sales
2009-10-16T09:55:00.000-07:00
We will have the Q3 report on the next week,but the CEA drop same information to us.
Let see:

UPDATE 1-Volvo CEO says European market bottomed out in Q3

 * Volvo CEO says pace of recovery in EU "gradual"

* Says U.S. makret also hit floor, no signs of upturn yet
 "We have bottomed out somewhere in the second and early third quarter, but I think it (the European market) is improving off of terribly low levels," he said, adding that the pace of recovery was "gradual".

Volvo, which sells trucks under brands such as Renault, Nissan Diesel and Mack, last month said that truck deliveries in Europe had fallen 72 percent year-on-year, while they dropped 33 percent in North America.

Johannson said the United States had also reached a floor but that he had not yet seen signs of an upturn in that market.

"It's fair to say we have reached the bottom there too, but we don't see much of an upturn in North America, it's still too early to say," Johansson said.

The Swedish vehicles maker, which reports third-quarter results on Oct. 23, has said it expects the European truck market to halve or worse this year and sees the already weak North American market to dip a further 30 to 40 percent.


US trade deficit vs Chinese FX reserve
2009-10-13T12:39:00.000-07:00


Interesting,isn't it?
The yellow line mark the diference between the US trade deficit,and the growth of the Chinese FX reserves.
Hypothesis:since the last fall everyone started to dump the $ (or just to keep the level of reserves) so China had to buy all of the paper ,and more to be able te keep the yüan exchange rate on level.

What could be the blue (US trade deficit) line if China doesn't ramp up the treasury buying?


Weichai Power - 2009 first half sales (Chinese truck sales)
2009-10-10T10:36:00.000-07:00
Weichai Power Co., Ltd.-interim report 2009 first half

Turnover amounted to approximately RMB15,647 million, decreased by
approximately 24.7%.
Net Profi t Attributable to Owners of the Company amounted
...
China’s
heavy-duty truck market recorded an aggregate sales of approximately
274,000 units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 28.0%. At the
same time, demand for engineering trucks such as tipper trucks and
concrete mixer trucks had been thriving since March, during this period,
driven by catalysts like national investment, the launch of industry
revitalization proposals, and fuel tax reform, while the stabilization of
logistic market after May substantially brought up the sales of tractors to
a large exten
...
The Company’s aggregate sales
of heavy-duty truck engines reached approximately 102,000 units in the
fi rst half of 2009, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%, which
was 2.1% lower than average level of the industry.
...
A total of
approximately 213,000 units of construction machines were sold in China
during the reporting period, representing a year-on-year decrease of
approximately 24.0%, among which sales of wheel loaders with a load
capacity of 5 tonnes (and above) amounted to approximately 48,000
units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 29.9%.
...
The Company’s sales of engines
for construction machinery were approximately 41,000 units in the fi rst
half of 2009, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.4%, among
which the sales of engines for wheel loaders with a load capacity of 5
tonnes were approximately 39,000 units, representing a year-on-year
decrease of 32.7%
...
The Company sold approximately 148,000 units of different models of
diesel engines in the period, representing a decrease of 26.6% over the
corresponding period of 2008

Interesting.What they used for the construction?The construction machinery sales show only decline,not increase in the construction activity.


Ford-Mazda_new capacity in China
2009-10-10T10:28:00.000-07:00
Changan Ford Mazda Automobile sold 144,600 Ford cars in the first eight months of 2009, up 30 percent year-on-year.

Changan Ford Mazda Automobile Co. said recently that it will start building a third auto plant in China which will take in total investment of 3.34 billion yuan. 
The plant, to be built on a 100-hectare site in Chongqing in southwest China, is expected to start operations in 2012.

The plant's annual capacity is at least 150,000 vehicles, and will bring total capacity at the Changan Ford Mazda joint venture to 600,000 units.
...
The two plants are rated at 410,000 units, but the first plant in Chongqing is running at overcapacity due to strong demand, said Zou Wenchao, vice executive chairman of Changan Ford Mazda. 
...
Changan Ford Mazda Automobile sold 144,600 Ford cars in the first eight months of 2009, up 30 percent year-on-year. August sales of Ford cars jumped 111 percent to more than 20,000 units.


US truckload demand
2009-10-10T10:23:00.000-07:00
Truckload Demand, Pricing Growing 



Investment report says capacity, shipper demand more in balance

Truckload demand is improving across parts of the United States, helping turn around a decline in pricing and raise prospects for higher rates in coming months, an investment analyst said in a report released Wednesday.

“Carriers are increasingly becoming more constructive regarding pricing over the next six months as spot pricing has become ‘less loose,’” Lee Klaskow, an equities analyst at Longbow Research said in a study of the market. 


GM China sales
2009-10-09T05:18:00.000-07:00
GM China Jan.-Sept. Sales Up 56% 

 GM China sold 1.29 million vehicles in the first nine months, up 55.6 percent year-on-year, according to its press release issued on Oct. 9.

It will be interesting.China oil conumption small,compare to the US,but the car sales are on  the same level.


The reason behind the high Chinese car sales: 0 interest loans
2009-10-08T14:07:00.001-07:00
It is interesting.

This is the first time when anyone mention this .

Car sales up in China thanks to favorable loan conditions


Liu Junli, Car buyer, said, “I would have needed a lot of money if I wanted to pay off everything at one shot. But the conditions of this loan mean I can keep some money by to do something else with. And I’m also okay with the term of the loan.”

According to the car dealer, the model picked by Liu comes with a zero-interest loan.

Putting it simply, customers only need to come up with a down payment, before paying back part of the principal each month, with no added interest.

Jiao Miao, Sales Manager, Guangzhou Toyota Motor Co. ltd, said, “Before this policy, 8 to 10 percent of consumers chose to take out loans to buy cars. But now the proportion is more than one third.”

In Anhui Province, a car maker started a joint financing company this April, working together to extend loans to buyers. And sales have surged.

Hao Qianglin, Manager of Wuhu Anqi Auto Sales Co., said, “When we cooperated with banks, the volume of autos paid for by loans accounted for only 3 percent of our total sales. But that same figure has climbed to 8 percent.”


week 39 US railway volume
2009-10-08T13:46:00.000-07:00
Link to the report

Line 17 . Motor vehicles and equipment. it is still better (by two binary magnitude) than the cumulative 2009 number.

-13.8%    vs.  -42.3 cumulative.

The summary indicators are slightly better than the cumulative numbers (1% diference,but the base is in the 16%...not that much)


Daimler truck sales , US/ global
2009-10-07T14:41:00.000-07:00
Daimler says U.S. truck market has bottomed

 "The second quarter was the worst (in terms of) order
intake, factory output, sales," Daum said Wednesday. "Every
indication these days is that it's not going to get worse."
...
North American truck sales rose 9 percent in August from
July, the company said.
...
Daimler Truck revenue fell 33 percent to 9.2 billion euros
in the first half.The division sold about 120,000 trucks in the
first half of the year, down 48 percent from a year earlier.
Its 2008 sales of 472,000 units compare with 516,000 in 2006.
...
The
heavy truck market in Europe fell almost 48 percent in the
first eight months of the year, while orders in the first half
of 2009 were down 85 percent from the same period in 2008.

There is same forecast,but they aren't worth too much.

The two thing,that we know:
1.,The truck inventory reduction done between the tier 3 suppliers and the end users.
2.,The end users have to adjust the size of the fleets to the current demand.

The point two mean that the truck orders have to increase untill the midle of the next year,and after that it will be on level.
But this level will be low,compared to the last few years.


Import licenses for steel up in september (US)
2009-10-07T14:40:00.000-07:00
Steel import applications up sharply in Sept.

Sharp increases in import license requests for steel tube and pipe products pushed the number of steel import permit applications up 25.6 percent last month compared with August, according to the U.S. Commerce Department's Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data. 


Railway traffic , US railroads , week 38
2009-10-03T13:04:00.000-07:00
Weekly trafic for week 38 for the mayor US railroads

The motor vehicles & equipment was -9.6%,and this is an improvement if we consider the low car sales in september (and the cumulative -43 % )

But all of the other sum volume (cargo ,comtainer ) are on the cumulative level.

So,no improvement in the real economy.


Class 8 truck sales in the USA,september
2009-10-03T11:16:00.000-07:00
Fourth Consecutive Monthly Increase Reflected in September Preliminary Heavy Truck Orders

Nashville, IN (October 2, 2009) FTR Associates has released preliminary data showing Class 8 net orders for all major North American OEM's totaled 10,817 units in September; the fourth consecutive month that orders have shown a month over month increase. Year to date orders through September 2009 are 5.2% ahead of the same period in 2008, reflecting the first year over year increase since June 2008. The figure includes orders for the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Exports. Order activity for September represents an annualized rate of 129,804. Eric Starks, President of FTR said "FTR still believes that any increases we are seeing now are partially driven by abnormal industry activity ahead of 2010 EPA emissions mandate. The data we track does not support any significant purchasing activity driven by increased freight demand any time soon. We continue to advise our clients to expect a continued soft recovery at least through 2010.

From one side,it is a good news.

But from the other side, the peak in the US was several years ago,and since 2007 the volume droped to the half.


Car sales.
2009-10-03T06:20:00.001-07:00
The car sales for september reflected the end of the cash for clunkers.
BUT

If the sales are flat,then we saw lower numbars than in january.
So,this sales numbers are mean that the avarage (july+august+sept) sales rate better than in the first half of the year.

link to the BLOOMBERG car sales diagram


NEW PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS FOR AUGUST 2009
2009-10-02T12:28:00.000-07:00
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: AUGUST 2009

Personal income increased $19.3 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $15.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.6 billion, or 1.3 percent.  In July,
personal income increased $19.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI decreased $2.0 billion, or less than 0.1
percent, and PCE increased $25.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, based on revised estimates.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $324.1 billion in August, compared with
$436.0 billion in July. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was
3.0 percent in August, compared with 4.0 percent in July.  For a comparison of personal saving
in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.


the saving rate falling.
Probably it is correlated with the cash-for-clunkers program?
But with the falling lending there is no other direction just the up.


treasury-ted :interesting trend in the past few weeks.
2009-10-01T13:05:00.000-07:00



I hope that the main point is visible.

A few weeks ago the TED hit the bottom,and this trigered a fall in the treasury.
Interesting corellation.Possibly the deflation with full speed?


Asia air freight
2009-09-30T11:00:00.000-07:00
Asia Air Freight Slowly Recovering

 

August tonnage is second highest of the year but 12 percent below 2008

Air freight traffic is slowly recovering in the Asia Pacific region, according to figures released Friday by the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines.

For four consecutive months, freight tonnage has fallen less than 20 percent, after falling more than 20 percent for the first four months of the year.


NAFTA surface trade
2009-09-28T10:47:00.000-07:00
NAFTA Surface Trade Fell 31.5 Percent

Surface Trade with Canada and Mexico plummeted 31.5 percent in June compared with June a year ago, but the month-to-month increase of 6 percent runs counter to seasonal trends and confirms signals that the economy may have hit bottom in May.


US truck tonnage for august.
2009-09-28T10:37:00.000-07:00
It is down by 7.5% compared to the aufust of 2008, but it is up by 2.1% compared to the july of 2009.




ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 2.1 Percent in August
 
ARLINGTON, VA — The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.1 percent in August, matching July’s increase of the same magnitude. The latest gain raised the SA index to 104.1 (2000=100), which was the best reading since February 2009.  The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 105.8 in August, down 0.5 percent from July.

Compared with August 2008, SA tonnage fell 7.5 percent, which was the best year-over-year showing since November 2008.



Chinese container volume
2009-09-26T12:13:00.001-07:00
It is interesting.
The august volume is just slightly lower than the 2008 number.

It is in line with the august railroad numbers.

Chinese Box Volumes Signal Recovery

The total volume for the top 10 Chinese container ports declined at its lowest rate for the year in August, at -3.3 percent, lower than the 9.3 percent decline seen year to date.


Chinese house sales-other report
2009-09-25T07:02:00.001-07:00
Industry September 21 to 25

High prices dampened property sales in first-tier cities in September, despite the month being a traditionally busy season, analysts said. In Beijing, apartment sales in the first 20 days of the month fell 10.8 percent from the same period in August to 6,541 units, while sales by area fell 4.8 percent to 759,000 square meters, the official Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Web said. In Shanghai, sales in the second week of September fell 10 percent week-on-week, while supply rose 84 percent, according to property consultants Centaline China. In Guangzhou, sales dropped 30 percent in the second week of September, while supply grew by 73 percent, Centaline said.


Railway traffic , US railroads , week 37
2009-09-25T01:09:00.000-07:00
We had a good week a few weeks ago,but since that the volumes are deteriorating again.
Drop in every category, however the drop is smaller than in the cumulative numbers.

Motor and vehicles and parts -11% , vs -44% cumulative.
The overal volume show half as bad drop like the cumulative number.(-9.6% vs -18.2%)
Probably we are on the recovery,but these are green shoots only when we compare them to the first half of 2009.
Link


China housing market
2009-09-25T01:07:00.000-07:00
Over 65% of Urban Residents Deem Home Prices Too High

» A survey conducted by China's central bank indicated that over 65 percent of urban residents feel that home prices in the third quarter were too high, a 2.8-percentage-point increase compared with the previous quarter.
» The survey also shows that 41.5 percent of respondents expected a rise in home prices for the fourth quarter, 16.2 percentage points higher than the third quarter.
» The proportion of residents with the intention to buy a home in the next three months climbed 1.3 percentage points to 17.1 percent and potential car purchasers accounted for 12.8 percent of the whole population, a mild increase by 0.6 percentage points.

Smell like a housing bubble.


Decline in the apartmant sales in China,steel import decrease in the USA
2009-09-23T13:23:00.000-07:00
Probably it is the first effect of the smaller lending?

Apartment Sales Fall in September

 
High prices dampened property sales in first-tier cities in September, despite the month being a traditionally busy season, analysts said.

In Beijing , apartment sales in the first 20 days of the month fell 10.8 percent from the same period in August to 6,541 units, while sales by area fell 4.8 percent to 759,000 square meters, the official Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Web said.

In Shanghai , sales in the second week of September fell 10 percent week-on-week, while supply rose 84 percent, according to property consultants Centaline China .

In Guangzhou , sales dropped 30 percent in the second week of September, while supply grew by 73 percent, Centaline said.

The consultancy said in a research report published on Sept. 23 that soaring prices depressed demand, most of which was met by strong sales in the first eight months.

The lukewarm sales performance in top cities and increased supply in September will add to the inventory on the market, the report said.

Gao Shan, an analyst at Beijing Yahao Real Estate Services, told Caijing on Sept. 23 that developers will introduce more properties to the market in September and October in a bid to tap into the usually busy buying season.

Sales in October will be a barometer for the market, he said.


 

U.S. Steel Imports Plunge 13.8 Percent

Total U.S. imports of steel declined 13.8 percent to 854,000 tons in August compared with 991,000 tons in July, based on preliminary reporting. August 2009 imports were 66.5 percent below levels of August 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department reported.

Year-to-date (January through August 2009), steel imports decreased 51 percent compared with 2008; or from 21.4 million tons in 2008 to 10.5 million tons during the same period in 2009. Imports of semi-finished products decreased by 86.2 percent in August 2009 compared with August 2008. Year-to-date, semi-finished imports dropped from 4.4 million tons in 2008 to 736,000 tons in 2009, an 83.4 percent decrease, based on preliminary reporting.


Increasing throughput in Marseilles
2009-09-22T11:39:00.000-07:00
Deep-sea terminal box throughput jumps 23 percent as other cargoes fall

Container throughput at the port of Marseilles/Fos in the first eight months of the year through August increased by 4 percent to 583,779 20-foot containers from the same period last year, the French port said Monday.

While a slump in the intra-Mediterranean trades caused box volumes via the Marseilles eastern harbor to drop by a third, throughput at the nearby Fos deep-sea terminal increased 23 percent to 458,219 TEUs in the same period.
.
Container tonnage increased by 3 percent to 5.75 million metric tons in the first eight months.

General cargo tonnage declined by 8 percent to 9.52 million metric tons. Roll-on, roll-of volumes dropped 9 percent to 2.73 million metric tons and conventional trades were down 40 percent to 1.04 million metric tons, although demand for steel products revived in August.

Total cargo throughput at the port declined by 13 percent from the same period last year to 55.69 million metric tons despite further signs of recovery in August.


Japan's stell,interesting article about the car market of the US
2009-09-21T11:53:00.000-07:00
Japan 's steel output increased 8.5% in Aug

Japan 's August crude steel output rose 8.5% month-on-month to 8.31 million tonnes, according to the Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF). 

And something about the future of the US car market:


1. Subsidies are set to expire. If the Fed continues to buy its average of $105 billion in GSE-backed MBS per month (see the NY Fed’s website
 
for weekly updates), it will max out the announced $1.25 trillion in four months. The $8,000 tax credit
 
for first-time home-buyers expires at the end of this year. The Fed’s Treasury buyback program will run its course by October
 
He is right.The september will be the test of the car market.


Logistic indicators and ship industry
2009-09-21T11:49:00.000-07:00

Japan Ship Orders Sink 66.8 Percent in August

Japanese export ship orders sank for the 11th consecutive month in
August on a year-on-year basis due to ship owners' flagging demand for
new vessels, tumbling 66.8 percent to 11 ships totaling 639,550 gross
tons, according to figures released by the Japan Ship Exporters'
Association.
...
During the January-August period of this year, Japanese shipbuilders
received orders for 80 export ships totaling 3,934,120 gross tons, down
a staggering 75.2 percent from the same eight-month period of last year.
Of the 80 ships, 60 are bulk carriers, 15 are oil tankers, three are
general cargo vessels and the remaining two are other ships.


And if we consider that the amortisation of a typical ship is several decade then we could see a shipbuilding crunch.


 

LA, Long Beach Volumes Grew In August

The total container volume, including imports, exports and empty
containers, in Los Angeles was up 6 percent over July and Long Beach's
total was up 14 percent. This was the second straight month of growth as
July's volumes at the two ports were higher than those handled in June.

However, container volumes this year are still way below those handled
in the same months of 2008. Los Angeles was down 19 percent compared to
August 2008 and Long Beach's total was down 21.7 percent.


 

Trans-Pacific Ocean Rates Jump 10 Percent

The average spot rate jumped 10.3 percent this week for shipping a
40-foot container from Hong Kong to Los Angeles, according to Drewry
Shipping Consultants weekly survey of spot market prices paid by freight
forwarders and non-vessel-operating common carriers.

The average rate, which excludes terminal handling charges in Hong Kong,
hit $1,486 this week, up $140 per FEU from $1,346 in the week ended
Sept. 13. The rate was still down by 28.5 percent from the average rate
of $2,078 per FEU in the same week last year


 

IATA: Airlines Ground 227 Freighters

Airline group projects 14 percent decline in cargo, $11 billion loss for
world carriers
The world's airlines have grounded 227 freighters, or nearly 12 percent
of the fleet of all-cargo planes, in response to the global economic
downturn that has cut steeply into cargo traffic and yield, the
International Air Transport Association said Tuesday.

Several indicator are better now.
The trucload of the new money from the goverments made a miracle.
We hope that it will last.


Volvo truck sales,August
2009-09-18T08:30:00.000-07:00
We have this.
Link.

-52% drop compared to 2008.This is a not-so-bad performance ,if we compare it to the first 7 month of 2009.


The passanger car business now out from the invenotry correction,probably the truck business is on the way to cut the inventory to the bone.


Week 36 US railroad volume
2009-09-18T08:23:00.000-07:00
There are again the bad old umbeers.

After the last few week,the total numbers are under the trend ,and the motor vehicles and part is -32.8% (this is still an improvement,compared to the -44.8% comulative).

But the overal volume show a drop compared to 2008.

LINK


The container ship fleet still growing.
2009-09-15T14:00:00.000-07:00
It is insane.
The industry is in freefall,but the capacity still growing.

World Box Fleet Growth Slows to 7.3 Percent


The global cellular ship capacity is expected to increase to 13.26 million 20-foot equivalent units at the end of the year from 12.36 million TEUs at the end of 2008, instead of the 14.02 million TEUs projected in January, according to Alphaliner, the Paris-based container shipping consultancy.


Chinese power consumption and other interesting things
2009-09-15T13:56:00.000-07:00
Trade Friction, Liquidity Concerns Limit Shanghai Index

Power companies and coal miners ended higher after the National Energy Administration said September 14 that national power consumption rose 8.2 percent year-on-year to 346.2 billion kilowatt hours in August. China relies on coal for more than 70 percent of its power, according to the China Electricity Council.

…

Demand for power increased in August as steelmakers ramped up production in response to rising prices and demand. Crude steel output rose 22 percent year-on-year to a record 52.33 million tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said September 11. Steel producers advanced, with Wuhan Iron and Steel Co. up 1.05 percent at 8.63 yuan.



…

Tire makers recouped some of their losses from the previous day, after the China Business News reported on September 15 that the country's tire manufacturing association and its member enterprises have lobbied the government to raise the export tax rebate on tires and reduce tariffs on rubber imports. The plea came in the wake of U.S. President Barack Obama's September 11 decision to impose duties of up to 35 percent on imports of Chinese tires.

…

Foreign direct investment rose 7 percent year-on-year to US$7.5 billion, the first gain in 11 months and indicative of investors' confidence in the country's economic recovery, the Ministry of Commerce said on September 15.


Ghost ships waiting for the green shots
2009-09-14T14:26:00.000-07:00
Good article,focused with a lot of good information.

Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession

Then I have it - his 750ft-long merchant vessel is standing absurdly high in the water. The low waves don't even bother the lowest mark on its Plimsoll line. It's the same with all the ships parked here, and there are a lot of them. Close to 500.
...
You may wish to know this because, if ever you had an irrational desire to charter one, now would be the time. This time last year, an Aframax tanker capable of carrying 80,000 tons of cargo would cost £31,000 a day ($50,000). Now it is about £3,400 ($5,500).
...
. The cost of sending a 40ft steel container of merchandise from China to the UK has fallen from £850 plus fuel charges last year to £180 this year. The cost of chartering an entire bulk freighter suitable for carrying raw materials has plunged even further, from close to £185,000 ($300,000) last summer to an incredible £6,100 ($10,000) earlier this year.
...
'So far the shipyards are continuing to work, but the problems will start to emerge next year and certainly in 2011, because that is when the current orders will have been delivered. There have hardly been any new orders in the past year. In 2011, the shipyards will simply run out of ships to build.'
...




Assia-EU container volume,july
2009-09-14T11:29:00.000-07:00
Asia-Europe Box Traffic Drops Less Sharply

The year long decline in Asia-Europe container traffic has slowed significantly, in a major boost for carriers attempting to push through higher ocean freight rates on the world's biggest liner trade.

Shipments from Asia to Europe fell 17.1 percent in July from a year ago, down from a 22 percent drop in the first half of the year, the European Liner Affairs Association said in its latest monthly traffic report.

The 997,715 TEUs shipped from Asia in July is almost at the same level as in January when carriers transported 1.019 million TEUs and an increase of 379,000 TEUs on the low point in February, which was affected by the Chinese New Year holidays.


Other area in the US-Chinese trade war
2009-09-12T10:51:00.000-07:00
China's Ministry of Commerce responded by saying the investigation was uncalled for in light of a 55 percent year-on-year decline in oil pipe exports in the first quarter.


(Caijing.com.cn) The U.S. Department of Commerce on Sept. 9 issued a preliminary ruling, imposing anti-subsidy duties of up to 31 percent on imports of Chinese pipes used in gas and oil wells.

In an emailed statement, the department said it will announce a final decision in early November, after which the case will be reviewed by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC). 

Chinese oil pipe imports have not hurt American industry, a market source told Caijing, noting that profits at U.S. oil pipe manufacturers tripled to US$2.4 billion in 2008. U.S. and Chinese manufacturers have both suffered this year due to falling oil prices and weak demand, the source added.



It will be interesting.
The next step from China could be tarrif on the car part import from the US
China looks into US car parts 'dumping'
This will be not an issue,but if the US will implement simmilar measurements,then many multinational company have to re-think the organisation of the supply chain.

And the overcapacity biger by each month in China:

China Crude Steel Output Up 22%

» China's August crude steel output rose 22 percent year-on-year to a record 52.33 million tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sept. 11.
» Crude steel output rose 12.6 percent year-on-year to 50.7 million tons in July.
» Steel output in September is expected to fall from August, as traders and downstream steel consumers reduce orders due to increasing inventories and falling prices of steel products since the beginning of August, a senior analyst with consulting house Mysteel told Caijing. 


Air cargo volume- Heathrow
2009-09-11T10:25:00.001-07:00
London Heathrow Traffic Falls 8.4 Percent

The 7.5 percent drop from August 2008 to 134,431 tonnes also marked the first time the decrease has been in single figures since last November. Traffic in July fell 11.7 percent from the previous year.


Air cargo volume
2009-09-10T12:20:00.000-07:00
Hong Kong Air Imports Grow 4 Percent

Air freight exports, which have been especially hard hit in the economic downturn, fell 10.1 percent compared to last year. But the exports also grew 4.4 percent in August from July and reached the highest level of the year at 107,946 metric tons.

HACTL’s overall tonnage also grew about 1.3 percent from July to its highest point of 2009, at 206,810 metric tons

Frankfurt Cargo Falls 5 Percent in August 

Europe's biggest cargo hub handled 156,627 metric tons of freight last month, 5 percent less than a year ago. Traffic for the first eight months of the year fell 18 percent compared with a year ago to 1.1 million tonnes.

Lufthansa Cargo, Frankfurt's largest customer, earlier this week reported July traffic fell just 1.1 percent from a year ago to 131,000 tonnes.


The first week in 2009 with positive US railroad volume growth!
2009-09-10T11:58:00.000-07:00
+2.3% gain in the Motor vehicles & equipment line!!!!!!

Incredible.
Report here.

Of course,the avarage volume in the first 35. weeks of 2009 was 325045 ,and on the week 35 it was 284715.So,partialy the recovery is due to the low 2009 base.

But it is nice .


Consumer credit in freefall ( july report )
2009-09-08T13:15:00.000-07:00
The release is here.

The amount of credit fall by 10.4% (annual rate)
The root casue of it is the big drop of the lending from the commercial banks.


Interesting data about the Chinese container volume.
2009-09-08T13:08:00.001-07:00
It is just visual observation,but interesting.
This is the blog where is it came from

I do my martial arts workout three mornings a week at the beach here in Qingdao . We have a great view of the entrance to the Qingdao port complex. Vessels intending to use the port must "park" for a while as they wait for a berth. For most of the summer, we would regularly see no more than five or six vessels parked and waiting. This Monday, I counted 23 vessels waiting for a berth. This means that the port is entirely backed up and there is simply no room for the vessels. This suggests that activity at the Qingdao port has suddenly increased, leading to a delay in shipments. The Qingdao port is the second largest container port in China . Its capacity is enormous and it is unusual for the port to back up in this way. This suggests that shipments out of China have suddenly increased in the past several weeks.


Declining truck rates in the US
2009-09-06T08:27:00.000-07:00
Truckload Rates Not Yet Bottoming

Freight rates in the truckload market, competing in many cases with rail-truck intermodal traffic, are steadily declining “without solid evidence of bottoming,” said transport stocks analyst John Larkin of Stifel Nicolaus.
...
Some truckload rates have “come in below intermodal rates and below what many carriers believe to be truckload variable costs,” he told clients. “We believe this level of spot pricing is unsustainable for the smaller, less-capitalized carriers that seem to have adopted what we consider desperate pricing policies.”

Larkin said some “non-sustainable trucking operations” that offer the low pricing are staying in business because they are getting help from creditors and equipment lessors, who hope those carriers can stay afloat until their equipment returns to book value.


Improvement in the US railway volumen
2009-09-06T08:20:00.000-07:00
Link

17. Motor Vehicles and Equipment , -13.4% , vs -46.2%.

If we consider that the avarage volume for the first 34 weeks of 2009 was 9000,and the week 34 is 11239 , then we could see nice improvement.
16739 was the avarage weekly volume on the first 34 weeks of 2008.
So,the week 34 of 2008 with 12979 was not so good in 2008.
1995	17,219	18,279	17,484	17,142	17,293	18,131	17,147	18,044	18,026	17,651	17,979	18,366	212,761
1996	18,261	18,620	18,301	17,885	17,957	18,107	18,211	18,658	17,655	19,171	18,535	18,334	219,695
1997	18,554	18,398	17,863	18559	18,293	18,617	19,107	18,565	18,562	19,071	18,578	19,250	223,417
1998	18,362	18,316	18685	19,044	18,375	19,182	19,466	19,347	18,895	19,188	18,673	19,419	226,952
1999	19,029	19,107	19,497	19,152	18,705	19,836	19,820	20,093	19,483	19,868	19,087	20,498	234,175
													0
2000	19,026	19,635	19,218	18,816	19,605	20,054	19,696	20,496	19,899	19,798	19,328	20,814	236,385
2001	20,092	19,689	19,876	19,729	19,501	19,561	19,919	20,153	19,016	19,824	19,396	19,003	235,759
2002	19,454	19,444	19,676	19,552	19,728	19,875	20,076	20,221	19,461	19,678	19,991	19,943	237,099
2003	20,017	20,375	19,708	19,830	19,344	19,793	20,094	20,586	19,933	20,182	19,873	20,679	240,414
2004	20,479	20,872	20,453	20,545	20,313	20,780	20,880	21,028	20,529	20,861	20,805	21,229	248,774
													0
2005	20,694	20,830	21,009	20,137	20,606	21,198	20,939	21,666	20,142	20,253	20,623	21,495	249,592
2006	20,436	20,577	20,608	20,201	20,457	20,982	20,740	21,434	20,559	20,769	20,669	20,795	248,227
2007	20,567	21,309	20,536	20,536	20,620	20,723	20,747	21,025	20,415	20,476	20,535	20,719	248,208
2008	20,247	20,029	19,831	19,815	19,798	19,678	19,557	19,272	17,839	19,698	19,052	19,142	233,958
2009	19,125	18,706	18,672	18,471	18,176	18,762	18,771	18,732	18,362	18,727	18,550	19,163	224,217
2010	18,528	18,860	19,070	18,910
date	Sum net TIC line 30	trade deficit	trade-TIC	cumm trade-TIC	Cumm trade	Cumm TIC
1991	5341	-31135	-25794	-25794	-31135	5341
1992	94137	-39212	54925	29131	-70347	99478
1993	94722	-70311	24411	53542	-140658	194200
1994	176716	-98493	78223	131765	-239151	370916
1995	171166	-96384	74782	206547	-335535	542082
1996	254175	-104065	150110	356657	-439600	796257
1997	311501	-108273	203228	559885	-547873	1107758
1998	304774	-166140	138634	698519	-714013	1412532
1999	362921	-265090	97831	796350	-979103	1775453
2000	372007	-379835	-7828	788522	-1358938	2147460
2001	431351	-365126	66225	854747	-1724064	2578811
2002	757012	-423725	333287	1188034	-2147789	3335823
2003	717556	-496915	220641	1408675	-2644704	4053379
2004	978860	-607730	371130	1779805	-3252434	5032239
2005	664973	-711567	-46594	1733211	-3964001	5697212
2006	1061837	-753283	308554	2041765	-4717284	6759049
2007	612166	-700258	-88092	1953673	-5417542	7371215
2008	664056	-695937	-31881	1921792	-6113479	8035271
2009	-283613	-378629	-662242	1259550	-6492108	7751658